Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.017146 0.019398 0.021835 0.024671 0.027880 0.031400 0.035555
2025-09-28 0.013030 0.016005 0.019501 0.023911 0.029335 0.035791 0.044073
2025-10-05 0.011458 0.014892 0.019159 0.024856 0.032271 0.041614 0.054307
2025-10-12 0.010227 0.013922 0.018727 0.025442 0.034606 0.046699 0.063924
2025-10-19 0.009311 0.013192 0.018445 0.026085 0.036943 0.051864 0.074010
2025-10-26 0.008327 0.012226 0.017694 0.025935 0.038081 0.055386 0.082034
2025-11-02 0.007560 0.011468 0.017126 0.025939 0.039366 0.059139 0.090633
2025-11-09 0.006790 0.010613 0.016317 0.025470 0.039853 0.061691 0.097576
2025-11-16 0.006318 0.010158 0.016050 0.025777 0.041508 0.066091 0.107693
2025-11-23 0.005791 0.009560 0.015498 0.025563 0.042291 0.069147 0.115872
2025-11-30 0.005499 0.009311 0.015467 0.026172 0.044432 0.074515 0.128262
2025-12-07 0.004967 0.008612 0.014639 0.025372 0.044134 0.075804 0.133819
2025-12-14 0.004568 0.008111 0.014111 0.025055 0.044660 0.078579 0.142295
2025-12-21 0.004134 0.007512 0.013363 0.024288 0.044333 0.079845 0.148203
2025-12-28 0.004017 0.007465 0.013576 0.025248 0.047170 0.086924 0.165310
2026-01-04 0.003854 0.007319 0.013593 0.025844 0.049376 0.093019 0.181086
2026-01-11 0.003711 0.007197 0.013642 0.026496 0.051733 0.099564 0.198269
2026-01-18 0.003474 0.006875 0.013289 0.026344 0.052515 0.103162 0.209949
2026-01-25 0.003278 0.006614 0.013030 0.026348 0.053595 0.107407 0.223266
2026-02-01 0.003042 0.006255 0.012551 0.025872 0.053664 0.109636 0.232611
2026-02-08 0.002912 0.006100 0.012464 0.026183 0.055366 0.115285 0.249589
2026-02-15 0.002738 0.005838 0.012137 0.025966 0.055938 0.118638 0.261918
2026-02-22 0.002658 0.005769 0.012203 0.026585 0.058338 0.126009 0.283642